decision intelligence
Forecasting & scenario analysis

Make confident decisions, backed by evidence.

Before you commit to a major decision — capital, strategy, a restructure, a new direction — we model and forecast the scenarios around it, so you can minimise the risk and maximise the return. Senior consulting judgement plus our own proprietary forecasting and scenario-analysis tools, turning a major decision into an informed one.

In te reo Māori, pūtake means the root. The foundation. The origin.

Every decision has a pūtake. Before you commit money, people or reputation to it, its foundations are worth testing — the evidence it rests on, the assumptions it carries, the risks it creates, and whether it will hold once it meets the real world.

Big decisions often go wrong because they were tested too late, too narrowly, or only against the business’s own internal logic. Pūtake Labs shows you what sits beneath the decision while you can still change course.

Tested too late Assumptions dressed up as facts sit inside the business case until the money’s spent and the difference shows.
Tested too narrowly The numbers get checked, but not the capacity, the people, or the way the risk shifts over time.
Tested from inside Plans that look sound on paper but can’t survive contact with how the business actually operates.

The decision, modelled. In plain language.

We model and forecast the scenarios around your decision to answer the six questions that actually decide whether a move works — the ones that let you cut the risk and lift the return. Weighted by the evidence behind each finding, and written so a board and a shed floor can both read it.

The core question

Should you do this — and how do you make it work?

We gather everything that bears on the decision, model and forecast realistic scenarios, and hand back a straight answer built to do two things: cut the risk of being wrong, and lift the return when you’re right.

  • Modelled and forecast, not a single opinion
  • Every finding weighted by the evidence behind it
  • Plain language a board and a shed can both read
What that gives you
Less downside The risks named, quantified and seen coming — before they cost you.
More upside The route and the timing that make the strongest return the likeliest one.
Result 01

Know if you can absorb it

Whether your operation has the capacity to take this on — or whether it stretches you past the point of return.

Result 02

See the real return

What it’s likely to cost, what it’s likely to make, and how much confidence you can actually put on those numbers.

Result 03

Know the risks in advance

What could go wrong, how likely it is, how it shifts over time, and who ends up carrying it if it does.

Result 04

Have alternatives ready

The other routes available, and the safeguards that improve your chances of success and protect your return — so one plan isn’t the only plan.

Result 05

See who really decides

Where the decision-making power actually sits, who’s affected, and where the blind spots are — so it’s made with eyes open.

Result 06

Protect your people

What the change asks of the people who live with it — workload, capability, safety and morale. A decision they can’t sustain isn’t one that works.

Three things that rarely sit together.

Most advisors give you one of these. We bring all three to the same decision — which is what makes the answer both rigorous and usable. You work directly with the two principals: no juniors, no subcontractors, no account managers.

01

Senior judgement

Decades of business and consulting experience directing the work. The people who scope your engagement are the people who deliver it — the judgement to know which questions actually decide the outcome.

  • Principal-led throughout
  • Cross-sector experience
  • No juniors, no handoffs
02

Our own forecasting tools

Proprietary forecasting and scenario-analysis tools, built specifically for this work. They digest and quantify everything bearing on the decision, then generate and test multiple scenarios and forward forecasts.

  • Multiple modelled scenarios
  • Forward forecasts, not point-in-time
  • Evidence-weighted findings
03

A wider view

Where the power sits, who’s affected, and what the change does to the people who have to live with it. The part of a decision that spreadsheets miss and implementations trip over.

  • Decision visibility and power
  • People, capability and wellbeing
  • Kaupapa Māori where it applies

Not a tool. Not just an opinion. You’re not buying software, and you’re not buying one consultant’s hunch. You’re getting modelled, evidence-weighted scenarios that senior people interpret into a decision you can act on. AI helps us see further and faster; the judgement stays human, and so does the accountability.

The kind of decisions we model.

Representative decisions from the sectors we focus on, and what the modelling tends to surface. Illustrative of the method, not specific client engagements. Select your industry for the full picture.

Kiwifruit & horticulture

A packhouse expansion on the back of a record season

A grower-packer weighing a multi-million-dollar coolstore and packhouse expansion, funded by two strong years and rising gold-kiwifruit volumes.

What the modelling surfaces

Whether projected grower supply actually fills the new capacity, how the numbers hold if returns soften, and the labour and staging risks a confident forecast tends to gloss over.

Dairy

Buying the neighbouring farm while the payout is high

A dairy operation considering a land purchase and added debt during a strong-payout year, to lift production and consolidate.

What the modelling surfaces

Whether the decision survives a softer payout and higher farm working expenses, the debt-servicing headroom under several scenarios, and the strain on people and infrastructure.

Red meat

Adding processing capacity while prices are strong

A red meat business weighing investment in processing capacity and new export channels, with confidence high and schedules favourable.

What the modelling surfaces

How the investment performs when prices turn, the exposure across different market-access and FTA scenarios, and whether throughput justifies the capacity over the cycle, not just the peak.

Māori primary assets

Developing whenua with commercial and cultural weight

An iwi or Māori entity weighing a development or partnership decision on collective assets, where commercial return and kaitiakitanga both carry weight.

What the modelling surfaces

The commercial case and the cultural obligations tested as one — return and risk modelled alongside data sovereignty, long-horizon collective value and intergenerational impact.

Food, beverage & FMCG

A go/no-go on a new export product line

An FMCG exporter deciding whether to commit capital to a new nutritional product and the plant capacity to make it.

What the modelling surfaces

Market-acceptance and demand scenarios, the payback under different exchange-rate and channel assumptions, and the regulatory and capacity risks that decide whether it’s a go.

Energy & utilities

Committing to a long-horizon generation investment

A generator or network business weighing an irreversible capital decision on generation, network or grid-transition assets measured in decades.

What the modelling surfaces

How the risk moves across the life of the asset, the return under different demand, regulatory and technology scenarios, and the consenting and community-consequence exposure.

Facing a decision like these? Start a conversation →

See where your decision is exposed — before you commit.

A structured self-audit across evidence, people, power, risk and implementation. You’ll get an honest read on where the decision is solid and where it’s exposed — and if it’s well-set, we’ll tell you that too. No generic report, no sales pitch at the end.

Test your decision Free · your answers stay yours · no pitch at the end

Senior judgement. Structured process. Clear commitment.

Every engagement begins with a straight conversation about the decision. Once scope is agreed, the work is divided by best fit between the principals to deliver the strongest outcome.

01

First conversation

We understand the decision, the pressure and the timeline. It tells us both whether the fit is right. No cost, no obligation, confidential.

02

Scoped engagement

One decision modelled in depth, or several when they’re connected. Clear deliverables, a defined timeline and an agreed investment before any work begins.

03

The full picture

For high-consequence decisions, the complete analysis — capacity, return, risk, alternatives, visibility and people — delivered as one integrated piece of work.

04

Implementation support

Once you’ve decided, practical help to make it land — roadmaps, process design, governance and change support, scoped to what was agreed.

The straight answers.

The things people usually want to know before that first conversation.

So what actually is Pūtake Labs — software or consultants?

Consultants. You engage senior people, not a product. What makes us different is that we’ve built our own forecasting and scenario-analysis tools to do the heavy modelling behind the work — so you get the rigour of serious analysis with the judgement of experienced advisors interpreting it. You never log into anything; you get a decision you can act on.

What do I actually walk away with?

A clear answer across six fronts: whether you have the capacity for the change, the likely return, the risks and who carries them, the alternative routes and safeguards, who really holds the decision, and what it does to your people. Modelled across realistic scenarios and written in plain language.

What kinds of decisions is this for?

Big, expensive, hard-to-reverse ones. A new product or market, a major capacity lift, an acquisition, a plant or processing investment, a diversification, taking on significant debt. Anywhere the cost of being wrong is significant and you’d rather find the weak point before you commit than after.

How does AI fit in?

AI helps us model faster and see further — it runs behind the work, not in front of it. Humans stay responsible for judgement, context and accountability. You’re getting modelled evidence interpreted by senior people, not an algorithm’s answer.

What does the first conversation cost?

Nothing, and it commits you to nothing. It’s a straight discussion about the decision you’re facing and whether we can help. If we’re not the right fit, we’ll tell you.

Test the decision before it gets expensive.

If you’re working through a decision that matters and want to know whether Pūtake Labs can help, the first conversation costs nothing and commits nothing. Tell us a little about the decision and we’ll be in touch.

kiaora@putakelabs.co.nz · 0800 437 675 Taranaki, New Zealand. Serving organisations across NZ and Australia.